Rewind Tariffs — Advisory Approval

May 15, 2026
Today's Briefing

CBP's CAPE refund system has processed $35.46 billion across 8.3 million entries, with the first payments now reaching importers — wine importer VOS Selections received $110,000 this week. The Section 122 replacement tariff was declared unlawful by the CIT on May 7 but the Federal Circuit granted an administrative stay on May 12, keeping the 10% duty in place while the appeal proceeds on an expedited schedule. State officials are demanding consumer pass-through protections as consumer class actions multiply. The DOJ's June 6 appeal deadline for the IEEPA refund order approaches without any filing activity.

Full Advisory
IEEPA Tariff Advisory — May 15, 2026

Analysis & Developments

CBP's second progress report to the Court of International Trade, filed on May 12, confirms that the CAPE refund system has crossed a significant operational threshold: 8,338,081 entries have been liquidated or reliquidated without IEEPA duties, representing an anticipated refund and interest amount of approximately $35.46 billion. Since the portal's April 20 launch, 126,237 CAPE declarations have been submitted, of which 86,874 passed file validations covering 15,123,221 individual entries accepted for the removal of IEEPA duties. The first actual payments are now reaching importers — wine importer VOS Selections, a plaintiff in one of the Democratic-led state actions, reported receiving a $110,000 refund this week. (Spectrum News) Judge Eaton has set May 26 as the next date for CBP to file an updated progress report, while the Department of Justice still has until June 6 to file an appeal of the CIT's March 4 refund order — a deadline that continues to approach without any filing, motion for extension, or public signaling of intent. (Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg)

The Section 122 replacement tariff landscape shifted dramatically over the past week. On May 7, the CIT ruled in a 2-1 decision that the administration's 10% global tariff imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 was unlawful, holding that the statutory prerequisite — a “large and serious United States balance-of-payments deficit” as understood in 1974 — was not satisfied and that the administration improperly relied on persistent trade deficits to justify the measure. However, the CIT limited its permanent injunction to the named plaintiffs: Burlap & Barrel, Basic Fun, and the State of Washington. The DOJ filed a notice of appeal on May 8 and an emergency stay motion on May 11, and the Federal Circuit granted a temporary administrative stay on May 12, keeping Section 122 tariffs in effect for all importers while the appeal proceeds. (Diaz Trade Law) The expedited briefing schedule gives plaintiffs until May 19 to respond and DOJ until May 22 to reply, signaling that the Federal Circuit intends to resolve the stay question quickly. Regardless of the appeal outcome, Section 122 tariffs are set to expire on July 24, 2026 under the statute's 150-day limitation unless Congress passes affirmative legislation to extend them — a prospect that remains uncertain given bipartisan skepticism about executive tariff authority in the wake of the Supreme Court's IEEPA ruling. (Troutman Pepper)

A coalition of eight state comptrollers and treasurers sent a letter to President Trump this week demanding public disclosure of all IEEPA refund applications and protections for consumers who bore the economic burden of the now-invalidated tariffs through higher prices. The letter, released publicly on May 14, argues that a refund process that does not account for pass-through costs risks directing public relief to parties who were not economically harmed. Minnesota State Auditor Julie Blaha suggested that consumer reimbursements could be handled through direct payments based on per-household impact estimates or through business-administered refunds to individual customers. (Spectrum News) This development arrives as plaintiffs' firms continue to file putative nationwide class actions alleging that companies are unjustly enriched by receiving IEEPA tariff refunds while retaining the tariff-related price increases they passed on to consumers, with legal theories spanning contract, restitution, and state consumer protection statutes. (Arnold & Porter) (Troutman Pepper)

On the broader trade policy front, USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer testified before the House Ways and Means Committee on May 11, citing a 24% reduction in the trade deficit since “Liberation Day” in April 2025. Notably, USTR has launched 76 new Section 301 investigations targeting structural overcapacity in manufacturing sectors and forced labor practices across major trading partners, with public hearings that commenced May 5. Greer indicated that the administration is not receptive to exclusion requests, and findings will lead to proposed responsive actions including potential new targeted tariffs. (Ways and Means Committee) Meanwhile, the Commerce Department released applications for onshoring agreements that would allow domestic producers to reduce Section 232 tariff exposure in exchange for commitments to expand U.S.-based manufacturing capacity. (Diaz Trade Law)

CBP's progress report also flagged an operational gap: 1,880 consolidated refunds have stalled because importers of record failed to register ACH account information on CBP's electronic payment portal. Additionally, importers should not rely solely on CAPE for refund recovery and should continue to monitor liquidation dates and file timely protests under 19 U.S.C. §1514, particularly for entries not yet eligible for CAPE processing or entries where compliance concerns may trigger additional CBP review. The 60-to-90-day processing timeline that CBP has projected remains aspirational, and the DOJ's June 6 appeal deadline introduces residual uncertainty into the entire refund architecture. (Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg)

Recommended Actions

Companies with IEEPA tariff exposure should take several concrete steps in the coming weeks. Importers who have filed CAPE declarations should verify that ACH account information is current on CBP's electronic refund portal to avoid being among the 1,880 stalled payments identified in the May 12 progress report. All importers should continue to monitor liquidation dates for their affected entries and file timely protests under §1514 — even for entries accepted into CAPE — as the DOJ's June 6 appeal deadline leaves the durability of the CIT's refund order in question. Companies that passed IEEPA tariff costs to customers through pricing adjustments or line-item surcharges should consult counsel regarding exposure to the growing wave of consumer class actions, document their pricing rationale, and consider voluntary disclosure strategies. For Section 122 tariffs, importers should continue paying the 10% duty while the Federal Circuit stay is in effect but should consider filing their own CIT actions to preserve refund rights, since the May 7 ruling was expressly limited to named plaintiffs and entries may liquidate while the appeal proceeds. Companies involved in Section 301-affected supply chains should monitor USTR hearing schedules for the 76 new investigations and prepare comments where their sectors are implicated.

Key Upcoming Dates
May 19 — Plaintiffs' response due in Section 122 Federal Circuit appeal (stay motion)
May 22 — DOJ reply deadline in Section 122 Federal Circuit appeal
May 26 — CBP CAPE refund progress report due to CIT (Judge Eaton)
June 6 — DOJ appeal deadline for IEEPA CIT refund order
July 24 — Section 122 tariff 150-day sunset (expires unless Congress acts)
LinkedIn Post
🚢 IEEPA Tariff Refunds - The money is actually moving $35.46 billion. That's the number CBP reported to Judge Eaton this week for IEEPA refunds processed through the CAPE system since its April 20 launch. And the first checks are landing — VOS Selections, one of the plaintiffs in the state AG action, confirmed receiving $110,000. For a government system built in under two months, that's a remarkable throughput number. There are still 1,880 refunds stuck because importers haven't registered ACH details, which feels like the kind of problem you want to have. Meanwhile, the Section 122 replacement tariff is living on borrowed time. The CIT ruled it unlawful on May 7, but the Federal Circuit stayed the ruling within five days. Expedited briefing wraps by May 22, and the underlying tariff sunsets July 24 regardless. So the real question isn't whether Section 122 survives — it's whether anyone in Congress is willing to extend it. The underreported angle? Eight state comptrollers are now demanding consumer pass-through protections on IEEPA refunds. If you passed tariff costs to customers, the class action risk just got louder. Christina Santucci at Spectrum News has good reporting on the $35B figure and the state officials' letter: https://spectrumlocalnews.com/us/snplus/business/2026/05/14/tariff-refunds-ieepa-customs-import-duties-businesses-consumers- #IEEPA #TradePolicy #ImportDuties #TariffRefund Rewind Tariffs
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Proposed News Articles (5 Selections)
Spectrum News (AP/Christina Santucci) • May 14, 2026
CBP reported $35.46B in processed IEEPA refunds across 8.3M entries as of May 11. First payments confirmed — VOS Selections received $110,000. Judge Eaton set May 26 for next progress report. Eight state officials demand consumer pass-through protections.
Diaz Trade Law (Jennifer Diaz) • May 14, 2026
Federal Circuit granted temporary stay of CIT's Section 122 invalidation ruling on May 12. Plaintiffs have until May 19 to respond; DOJ reply by May 22. Relief limited to named plaintiffs — importers should file their own CIT actions to preserve refund rights.
Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg • May 14, 2026
Detailed breakdown of CAPE metrics: 126,237 declarations submitted, 86,874 passing validation, 15.1M entries accepted. STR recommends filing timely protests under §1514 even for CAPE-accepted entries, and notes DOJ appeal deadline of June 6 as key risk factor.
Troutman Pepper Locke • May 14, 2026
Analysis of the Federal Circuit's May 12 administrative stay and its procedural implications. Notes that CIT expressly limited relief to named plaintiffs and that entries could liquidate while appeal proceeds, narrowing the window for non-party importers.
Diaz Trade Law (Jennifer Diaz) • May 14, 2026
Commerce Department opens applications for onshoring agreements allowing domestic manufacturers to reduce Section 232 tariff exposure by committing to expand U.S. production capacity. Signals administration's shift toward incentive-based trade mechanisms alongside enforcement.
Proposed Site Updates
Update Hero Badge — "$35.46B in refunds processed"
Source: CBP May 12 progress report to CIT
Update the hero section stat badge to reflect the latest CAPE figure: "$35.46B in IEEPA refunds processed" with "Updated May 15, 2026" date badge. Previous figure was from the April launch period.
Update Stats/Metrics — CAPE processing numbers
Source: CBP May 12 progress report to CIT
Update site metrics: 126,237 declarations submitted; 86,874 passed validation; 15.1M entries accepted; 8.3M entries liquidated/reliquidated; $35.46B anticipated refunds. Add note: "First payments confirmed — some importers report receiving refunds."
Alert Banner — Section 122 tariff stay and consumer class action risk
Source: Federal Circuit May 12 stay order; state officials' May 14 letter
Suggested banner text: "Section 122 tariffs remain in effect after Federal Circuit stay (May 12). Consumer class action risk growing for importers who passed IEEPA tariff costs to customers. Contact us for refund strategy."
FAQ Addition — "Do I need to file a protest even if I'm in CAPE?"
Source: Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg May 14 advisory
Add FAQ entry addressing the STR recommendation that importers file timely protests under §1514 even for CAPE-accepted entries, given DOJ appeal risk. Suggested answer: "Yes. STR and other trade counsel recommend filing protests as a protective measure while the DOJ appeal deadline (June 6) remains open."

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